Dan the Man

A promising rookie took a big step forward last year.

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2016 was an excellent year for rookies. We saw 20 homers in only 229 PAs from Gary Sanchez, 20 in only 330 PAs from Ryan Schimpf, and 27 in only 415 PAs from Trevor Story. Trea Turner managed 33 steals, 13 homers, and a .388 BABIP. Tyler Naquin ran a .411 BABIP.   Not to mention, Corey Seager racked up 7.5 WAR. You get the idea. This year, Dan Vogelbach looks poised to burst onto the scene.

Vogelbach was dealt just before the trade deadline from the Cubs to the Mariners in a four-player deal that was basically just Mike Montgomery for Vogelbach, with a throw-in on each side. It was expected that the Cubs would trade Vogelbach, a notoriously bad fielder who can only play first base at best (where Anthony Rizzo is slotted for the near future), to an American League team who could deploy him at first base or DH if needed. However, there is little doubt about his offensive ability: at every stop in the minors where he logged at least 100 PAs, he put up at least a 126 wRC+ with at least a .150 ISO, 10% walk rate, and .350 OBP. Not to mention, he struck out in less than 20% of his PAs at every stop but one (where he struck out in 20.2%). Check out some of his important stats from last year, which was another solid year:

Team PA HR BB% K%
Mariners (AAA) 198 7 21.20% 17.20%
Cubs (AAA) 365 16 15.10% 18.40%
ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG
0.182 0.263 0.240 0.404 0.422
0.230 0.362 0.318 0.425 0.548
wOBA wRC+
0.375 127
0.423 158

While his success with the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate was partially BABIP driven, it was a larger sample, and he still maintained a solid ISO (.182) with the Mariners’ affiliate. Not to mention, he walked a ton, even more than he struck out after the trade. Either way, at each stop, he posted an OBP above .400, incredible plate discipline for a 23 year-old (now he’s entering his age-24 season). Walk percentage is an excellent predictor for future results, as it usually has an r-squared value in the .70’s from year to year. Thus, it isn’t surprising that Vogelbach received the most positive projection from Steamer this year for all incoming rookie hitters (in terms of wRC+).

Data from FanGraphs, photo by Gregg Forwerck/Getty Images, via seattlepi.com. Thanks for reading!

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